Inflation outlook and foodservice market update - June
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.5% in the 12 months to April 2025, up from 2.6% in the 12 months to March 2025.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices rose by 3.4% in the 12 months to April 2025, up from 3.0% in the 12 months to March. The upward effects came from meat, mineral water, bread and cereals, and sugar and jam. The downward effects came from vegetables, milk, cheese and eggs.
The Retail Price Index (RPI) is now 4.5% vs 3.2% last month up 1.3% while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has not been released.
Market movers:
FISH & SEAFOOD
Sea Bass is severely constrained by last year’s mortalities and reduced planting, with all size grades affected.
The salmon market has stabilised after a period of uncertainty. Improved fish health and reduced overseas demand mean salmon is a good choice this summer.
Native flat fish are returning to prime quality, such as Lemon Sole, which will be in excellent condition from July onwards – especially Cornish fish.
Cod and haddock are under quota pressure with volatile pricing. Scottish and Icelandic fish are the main sources, though both are limited.
Coley prices have risen but still represent strong value. It is ideal for fishcakes, goujons, or pies.
Hake supply is stable, but pricing reflects its increasing popularity. It is now a premium item in many markets.
Native lobster season is now underway so great value and quality will be found!
Scottish Monkfish is excellent quality and is a great sustainable option for menus.
Top Tip #1: Coley and Alaskan pollock should be looked at as an alternative to the volatile whitefish on menus in the coming months
Top Tip #2: Cornish Sole is at peak condition. It is economical, underutilised, and ideal for summer dishes. Plaice are also fully in season.
FRUIT & VEG
There have been ad hoc quality challenges with some berries as we enter the very end of the Moroccan season. However, with blackberries and strawberries already fully British, the good news is that we expect raspberries to join them in full UK supply by next week. British strawberries remain a great option with some fantastic early season quality and good availability.
There is currently a concession in place for British strawberries to allow for slightly smaller fruit due to the ‘June Bearer’ crop coming to an end. This concession is in place to maintain both consistency and availability.
There is expected to be a three-week delay to the start of the South African lemon season due to heavy rains and severe flooding, which has led to market supply issues.
There have been melon availability issues following poor weather conditions during the Central American season, however the transition to Spanish crop is underway.
We are nearing the end of the British parsnip season and will be switching to Spain, however there may be challenges due to heavy rains during the growing period.
American sweet potato harvest is down around 40% on a standard year due to poor weather during the growing period. We are expecting market-wide challenges during July as we reach the pinch-point of the season, before the start of the Egyptian season at the end of July/beginning of August.
As we approach the end of the British carrot season, we are starting to see some quality issues. However, until we start to receive new season produce, customers are advised to keep carrots stored at as low a temperature as possible, which will help to maintain shelf-life and minimise any end-of-season quality issues. Chantenay carrots are currently being sourced from Spain, where the recent rains have affected the colour, making them appear a little dull. This is a short-term issue.
Isle of Wight tomatoes are available and are great quality.
Top Tip: We recommend eating in season and switching from winter crops such as root veg to summer crops, such as salads. The UK lettuce season started early due to the warm weather and our core lines have now moved to British supply.
In season now:
- UK raspberries
- Spanish nectarines
- UK peas
- UK iceberg
- New potatoes
- UK broad beans
- UK courgettes
Last chance:
- Asparagus
MEAT AND POULTRY
The beef market is up 45% year on year (May 24 to May 25), and there has been a 27% increase since January to May. Demand is still strong, and cattle availability is reducing. We’ve seen pricing settle at around the unprecedented mark of 700p/Kg deadweight for the last couple of weeks, but indicators still suggest risk of further inflation.
Availability pressure on chicken is still present as stocks try to recover from cases of Avian Influenza (AI) in the UK and Europe. Availability is still tight as they look to recover from a more significant loss of birds to AI this year, and demand remains strong for UK poultry domestically. Availability challenges should start easing as we move into the summer, this is yet to be reflected in pricing.
Prices of turkey haven’t reduced post-Christmas as they traditionally do. Producers were impacted by the same AI challenges as chicken, and some are moving into chicken due to the better growth rate and ability to recover from AI shocks quicker. With mless turkey producers and tighter availability both in the EU and UK, pricing is impacted.
We are starting to see pork inflation. This is a seasonal trend which is mainly impacting sausages, driven by warm weather as we approach barbeque season. Our pricing remains competitive with our core supplier of sausages. Pork in general is still a very cost-effective option when compared to beef.
Top Tip: We are still recommending reducing beef consumption in favour of more cost-effective options such as poultry and pork.
EGGS AND DAIRY
Milk farmers have been impacted the by the April NI increases with their already tight bottom lines being stretched beyond their limits.
Furthermore, bulk cream has fallen in value throughout 2025 meaning milk processors earn less through the process of skimming. There is some optimism in the market as milk deliveries have soared at the start of spring.
Avian flu has hit Europe hard, with cases continuing to rise, causing egg price increases. Since the UK isn’t self-sufficient in egg production and relies on imports to meet demand, supply has become very tight, with any spare capacity being expensive. If more cases of avian flu are detected, egg prices are likely to increase further.
GROCERY
Global pepper prices are projected to rise in 2025, particularly for black pepper. This increase is due to a combination of factors, including decreased production and increased demand. Specific reasons for the price increase include supply chain disruptions, unfavourable weather conditions, and a growing appetite for pepper in various sectors like food processing and nutraceuticals.
The rise in cocoa prices is largely due to a global cocoa shortage, which has persisted since early 2024. Disease pressures, climate change and extreme weather have ravaged crops in West Africa, which contributes around 80% of the world’s cocoa output. Despite hopes for a better crop in the 2024/25 season, cocoa prices look set to remain high in the medium term due to supply-side constraints and firm demand.
ENERGY
EU gas prices fell -16% month-on-month but prices are still up +22% year-on-year. There was weaker demand throughout April due to higher temperatures putting less demand on heating. Power prices in Europe declined significantly throughout the month -26% month-on-month mainly driven by the fall in natural gas prices.
FINAL WORD
Regency continue to proactively mitigate availability issues and supply risk, putting solutions in place to reduce impact, such as product switches and recipe re-engineering.
When analysing the affects that inflation has on your businesses purchasing, it's important to understand that inflation affects not only the price of goods, but also the quality and availability - this is something that our team of procurement experts can assess in detail, to ensure our members are always achieving the best outcomes in all areas.
Equally, we fully understand the challenges presented by the increase in Employer National Insurance Contributions and National Living Wage, along with reduction in business rates relief and increased water bills. Our team of experts are working closer than ever with our members to reduce their purchasing costs in attempt to lessen the impact of rising costs in other areas of the business.
To find out more about ways in which we can help save your business time and money please call 01277 364655 or email enquiries@equinoxesolutions.com.