Inflation outlook and foodservice market update - August
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.6% in the 12 months to June 2025, up from 3.4% in the 12 months to May 2025. Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices rose by 4.5% in the 12 months to June 2025, the third consecutive increase and the highest recorded since February 2024.
The FPI Index also increased to 3.5% in the 12 months to June 2025, its fourth consecutive increase and the highest level since June 2024.
Market movers:
MEAT
Beef - further inflation is a significant risk. Deadweight prices are stabilising; however, cattle numbers are reduced YOY and demand has remained strong. Summer demand for trim and processed products will continue to be high and likely increase pricing further. More expensive primal cuts should continue to stabilise.
Chicken - UK availability remains tight, with strong competition for Red Tractor assured stock. This is due to slow recovery in Eastern Europe following avian influenza related flock culls, though warmer weather has recently improved conditions.
UK Pork - production is forecast to rise 3.3% YOY. Supplier prices have been very consistent for over 12 months and availability is good.
Top Tip #1: We continue to recommend switching from Beef into more cost-effective options such as Poultry and Pork.
Top Tip #2: Switching from Beef to Wild Venison offers significantly lower carbon emissions. It also provides greater price stability.
FRUIT & VEG
Sweet Potato - quality issues are increasing but will ease in August when the Egyptian season starts.
Broccoli and cauliflower - With the record temperatures this summer, we are now seeing supply issues with Broccoli and Caulifower.
Tenderstem Broccoli - heat stress is causing early flowering and harvest losses. This is also impacting regular broccoli, though eating quality remains unaffected.
Raspberries - due to high temperatures, raspberries are struggling with slowed growth and softening.
Strawberries - supply remains tight, but the summer crop is progressing well and should peak in about two weeks.
Red Cabbage – we are seeing poor quality and limited availability, but the arrival of new season white cabbage is easing supply pressures.
Top Tip #1: British Blueberries are a great alternative. We are also in the Murcia Melon season with larger volumes arriving, making them a great option.
Top Tip #2: The warm weather has advanced the British Fine Bean harvest by around a fortnight. These will therefore be available earlier than expected.
In season:
Cherries
Blueberries
UK Sweetcorn
Main Crop Potatoes
Planning ahead:
UK Damsons and Plums
Summer Squashes
Turkish Figs
FISH & SEAFOOD
Flat Fish - Dover Sole and Turbot are moving out of season due to spawning, impacting their quality as energy is diverted from flesh development. Therefore, availability of premium-grade fish is limited, and prices are climbing.
Whitefish - Cod prices have surged to record highs. The whitefish market is still extremely volatile with demand currently outstripping supply. Sanctions on fish of Russian origin are impacting availability, with Russia historically accounting for 40% of global whitefish production. This is exacerbated by the recent recommendation from the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group that the 2026 Barents Sea cod quota is cut to 21% less than in 2025. This is causing a ripple effect across the whitefish industry, driving up prices for haddock and hake.
Tuna - rising sea temperatures mean pole and line sourced tuna supply has significantly weakened in 2025 as fish are now living in the deeper, cooler waters.
Good picks this season include:
Salmon
Halibut
Plaice
Mussels
Monkfish
Top Tip: With fish and chips remaining a customer favourite, we suggest listing on menus as “fish and chips”. Any commitment to a particular species in these volatile times means the potential of expensive menu re-writes and time-consuming front of house communication if your choice is impacted by supply shortages.
GROCERY
Canned Tomatoes – dry weather in Italy this spring has resulted in some farming areas having 25% less fertile surface area. Early season pricing looks to reflect this.
Extra Virgin Olive Oil - prices have softened due to increased production estimates, but there remains concern that the upcoming weather could impact yields.
DAIRY
Cream - prices have been rising, driven by increased demand. Warm weather has increased demand, with seasonal favourites like strawberries and cream.
Butter - prices have been increasing, with supply remaining tight as processors prioritise selling cream over converting it into butter. Prices are expected to stay high until demand on the continent begins to ease.
UK KEY MARKET MOVERS (CPI)
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation in the UK. Movements in CPI give a high-level overview of the key categories experiencing inflation. Below is a monthly snapshot of the top food commodity price inflation movements impacting the UK. The data is from Office for National Statistics (ONS).
FINAL WORD
Equinoxe continue to proactively mitigate availability issues and supply risk, putting solutions in place to reduce impact, such as product switches and recipe re-engineering.
When analysing the impact that inflation has on your businesses purchasing, it's important to understand that inflation affects not only the price of goods, but also the quality and availability. Our procurement experts will fully analyse every change to achieve the best outcomes in all areas.
Equally, we fully understand the challenges presented by the increase in Employer National Insurance Contributions and National Living Wage, along with reduction in business rates relief and increased water bills. Our team of experts are working closer than ever with our members to reduce their purchasing costs in attempt to lessen the impact of rising costs in other areas of the business.
To find out more about ways in which we can help save your business time and money please call your Account Manager or call 01277 364655
Sources: Foodbuy, Direct Seafood, Dole, Birtwistles.