Market Report - May 2025
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% in the 12 months to March, down from 2.8% in the 12 months to February. Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices rose by 3.0% in the 12 months to March, down from 3.3% in the 12 months to February.
Although the Foodservice Price Index (FPI) remained at 1.8% there is still significant concern about the potential level of inflation impacting the UK hospitality sector over the coming months.
Market movers:
FISH & SEAFOOD
Prices of Farmed Seabass and Gilthead Bream are rising due to low biomass from last year’s high mortality rate, this is expected until September/October when new fish arrive. South-coast seabass offers good value now that the commercial fishing ban has been lifted.
The Atlantic ocean is in long term gradual decline as a source of tuna which means that there is more demand for fish from the Indian Ocean. Ghana markets have had less P&L boats which has reduced market supply, resulting in very poor catches from the boats that are available. The EU market is generally quiet but large canners will shortly re-enter the market for spring deliveries.
Top tip #1: The Tuna market has seen recent inflation, as a result we recommend increasing canned tuna orders to cover required demand.
Pricing for South-coast Flatfish remains high due to fewer fish available and strong demand. Reduced quotas are driving up Cod and Haddock prices. Fleets are reducing cod fishing to comply with high-grading restrictions, adding further pressure. Prices for whole cod out of Scotland are unusually high for this time of year. Alaskan Pollock and Coley remain good alternatives.
South-coast Hake landings are improving with larger fish, and prices should ease. However, Scottish boats report that fish have moved, reducing market volumes, which could impact pricing as demand remains strong.
With the UK Lobster season starting, prices for both Native and Canadian stocks should lower in May. Native lobsters will be excellent quality at this time.
Salmon prices surged over Easter and will take time to ease due to lower farm stock levels.
Top Tip #2: Switch to ChalkStream Trout as an alternative to Salmon.
FRUIT & VEG
As we approach the British summer season, we'll start to see prices decrease on crops that will be moving from areas further afield to closer to home due to import cost reductions. This will predominantly affect summer crops such as Salads, Cucumbers, Peppers and Berries due to reduced import costs. We should see the benefit of season price reductions until the end of October.
Top Tip: We recommend moving into Summer Berries with the new season starting in May.
Melons have been affected by poor weather conditions at the start of the Central American season. Large honeydew melons are expected to be the biggest challenge for the coming of weeks.
Lettuce supply remains challenging due to the Spanish floods. However, we will be transitioning to the UK crop over the new few weeks.
We are expecting the poor American Sweet Potato harvest, which is around 40% down on a standard year, to start impacting the market at the end of April. This will lead to a difficult period in the market, potentially lasting until August.
We are approaching the end of the British Carrot and Parsnip season.
As we approach the end of the Spanish season, there are some quality issues with Tomatoes.
There is likely to be shortages of salad Potatoes, red potatoes and larger potatoes later in the season due to the low carryover stock from last season. Large bakers are also anticipated to be in very short supply, due to the lack of time they had to grow following late planting.
Availability issues are expected with Sweet Potatoes as the American harvest is down by 30-40% due to poor weather during the growing period.
WHEAT
Wheat prices have fallen by 12% year-over-year thanks to a rise in global supply and better harvests brought on by favourable weather. This situation has led to positive predictions and subsequent decreases in prices.
MEAT AND POULTRY
Beef inflation continues and shows no signs of slowing. The market is up 42% year on year (April 24 to April 25), with a 25% increase since January 2025. Demand is still strong, and total cattle availability has reduced, meaning prices may continue to rise. Reports suggest this is going to continue for the majority of 2025.
Top Tip #1: We recommend moving away from Beef in favour of more cost-effective proteins such as Chicken or Pork.
Poultry availability has become tighter in recent months. This is caused by a combination of suppliers improving their stocking density welfare standards and by large outbreaks of avian influenza in the UK and Europe. The outbreaks in Europe have impacted availability which is putting more pressure on the UK market. We anticipate this will continue for a few more weeks until the weather improves across the UK / Europe as we head into the summer months.
UK Pork has remained stable for the last five months, however due to the record prices in the UK Beef and Lamb markets, we're seeing higher demand for pork. Seasonal summer demand for the pork sausages are driving trim prices and the demand for pork legs for hams are a major factor. EU pork prices are up by 10% due to increased demand from other markets and a decrease of the pound against the euro. Pork bellies, collars, shoulders and legs are the main culprit of the increases.
UK Lamb market prices are steady awaiting the new season. We are expecting the usual seasonal increase in price as for the new season lamb throughout May.
EGGS AND DAIRY
Avian Flu has hit Europe hard, with cases continuing to rise. Since the UK isn’t self-sufficient in Egg production and relies on imports to meet demand, supply has become very tight, any spare capacity is scarce and expensive. If more cases of Avian Flu are detected, egg prices are likely to increase further.
Milk production is up this year with a 3.8% year-on-year increase. As a result of the recent good weather, the impact of this year’s spring flush is expected to be greater because the cows have returned to the fields earlier, with further increases in milk pools expected as we approach summer. However, it is worth noting the spring flush has had a reduced impact on pricing over recent years due to cows now producing consistent yields throughout the year.
COFFEE
Coffee prices are at historic highs, with Arabica up 128% year-on-year and Robusta rising 96% year-on-year, mainly due to severe droughts in Brazil and Vietnam. The El Niño weather pattern has worsened supply issues, while speculative trading has increased market volatility. With demand still strong and supply struggling to recover, further price increases across suppliers and retailers are expected.
RAPESEED AND SUNFLOWER OIL
Pricing is up vs a year ago, mainly driven by the reduced Rapeseed crop and unexpected poor Sunflower yields.
In several regions supply of Rapeseed Oil beyond May is not yet secured which is likely to result in a challenging transition from old to new crops. However, it is in the ground and growing with conditions in Europe reasonable therefore a higher increased crop is expected.
Due to poor crops in 2024 supply will be tight for Sunflower Oil due to production being down in Ukraine and Russia. Sunflower Oil is expected to continue as a “premium” oil over Soybean and Rapeseed. However, consumers in Northern Europe should be covered until the new crop season.
JUICES
Uncertainty remains high, making price fluctuations likely to persist throughout 2025. Juice demand has softened slightly, reducing immediate strain on supply, while retailers are exploring alternative sourcing strategies to maintain availability. Long-term weather forecasts suggest possible improvements in growing conditions, which could lead to better harvests and more stable pricing in the coming months.
CHOCOLATE AND COCOA
Cocoa prices remain extremely high, with a 161% year-on-year increase due to poor harvests in key regions like the Ivory Coast. Supply shortages are expected to continue, with major brands already increasing prices, and further hikes anticipated from Mars and Nestlé in the coming months. With stock levels low and demand steady, prices are unlikely to ease for at least another 1–2 years.
UK KEY MARKET MOVERS (CPI)
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation in the UK. Movements in CPI give a high-level overview of the key categories experiencing inflation. Below is a monthly snapshot of the top food commodity price inflation movements impacting the UK. The data is from Office for National Statistics (ONS).
FINAL WORD
Equinoxe continue to work relentlessly to proactively mitigate any availability issues and supply risk. We are always looking for news ways to help our customers reduce the impact, such as product switches and recipe re-engineering.
We fully understand the challenges presented by the recent increase in Employer National Insurance Contributions and National Living Wage, along with reduction in business rates relief and increased water bills. Our team of experts are working closer than ever with our members to reduce their purchasing costs in attempt to lessen the impact of rising costs in other areas of the business.
To find out more about ways in which we can help save your business time and money please contact your dedicated Account Manager or call us on 01277 364 655